Nicholas Kristof writes this interesting column in the N.Y. Times today about the inability of experts (and he explicitly mentions political scientists) to make predictions better than a monkey. He’s working off the ideas of Philip Tetlock’s book “Expert Political Judgment.” I’ve never read the book, but maybe I should. Anybody have any thoughts on Tetlock?
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UNL Political Science Graduate Student Blog 
Here’s a video of Tetlock describing his idea:
His book is really outstanding. And, it is one of the rare political science books reviewed in The New Yorker.