I found this article today on BdM’s efforts to use rational choice to forecast political events. I was interested because when Dr. Miller, Randy and I had breakfast last Friday with Dr. Vasquez, this is all Miller and Vasquez talked about. Then I was looking at speakers for this year’s TED, and I saw BdM on the roster. Apparently he’s a really big deal.
It’s interesting for a variety of reasons, not least of which being that UNL isn’t wild about rational choice. But if his forecasting works as well as the article says it does, we surely have to take it seriously.
I would note that Vasquez made a point to say that most of the inputs that go into the model are qualitative appraisals made by area experts. (Though, in truth, that is really no different than any other quantitative data).